Future Vintage: Predict currently cheap stuff that’ll skyrocket in value eventually

[fartboy]

Always had a perverse liking for the Gibson SG Zoot Suit https://www.gak.co.uk/en/gibson-sg-zoot ... ange/27050

[Kinx]

Squier 51 might be a good shout, too?

I can imagine a rise on those if someone famous or semi-famous would pick it up. Or if there is a reissue introduced, that also counts

[s_mcsleazy]

Squier 51 might be a good shout, too?

I can imagine a rise on those if someone famous or semi-famous would pick it up. Or if there is a reissue introduced, that also counts

i know one of the guitar players in bully sometimes plays one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZtoV_vfWNs

[will]

would be kinda nice to see the gear market crash a bit for a while. it’s inflated to a point that i find kinda fucking ridiculous since the birth of reverb. pedals shouldn’t sell used for 80-90% of what they go for new, musicmasters shouldn’t cost $1k+. the local craigslist has been really weird the past month. lots in the way of steals right now - $500 for a ‘70s mm bass, a jagstang sold for $300 a few days back. some squiers going for 1/4 what they cost new.

interesting how some higher end/“in” pieces remain predictable, while others drop around them. old jazzmasters and jaguars seem to be steady, while coronados are creeping back down to the $1000 mark here and there, where they had been gaining a lot of traction into the 2k area for a while(EDIT - side note, i think in the states and elsewhere a lot of this has to do with the way economic instability affects certain buyers. collectors interested in $20,000 telecasters are roughly untouched by a crisis of this sort, where a laid off bartender looking for a squier cv jag is likely not willing to risk missing rent to buy one). plenty of good deals on the gc used site have just been sitting for a fat minute(which, to be fair, they get you with shipping and taxes, but a mustang special sat at $550 for a couple weeks, and their vintage section is looking pretty cheap in general).

more relevant, i imagine old tube amps of most sorts will continue to climb(at least relative to the market). my only real reasoning being “they don’t make em like they used to”, unless you spend $1.5-3k. any great “bargain mic” that goes out of production will likely become very sought after, oktava mk-012s and the like. i think though, a lot of these things rest on what continues to be produced and what doesn’t, and what changes manufacturers make to their products over time. i imagine if strats had been made and spec’d identically since the 50s, you’d be hard pressed to get 25k for your 1958.

sorry to ramble! i should do some proper research and write a paper on this instead.

i can only speak for the uk but god damn i hate what reverb has done to the market here and i wish sellers would stop using ebay prices as gospel rather than a guide. so last year, i bought a wem dominator 25. it was in good condition and i got a great deal on it (£125 and a rodan cd) about the same time i got that, a local guitar shop got a better condition dominator 25 and was trying to sell it for £400 aka reverb prices. at one point, i was having money issues so i sold it and the first thing i learned was they're a hard sell. the best price i could get was £275. so i made a good profit on it. however i have noticed that this guitar shop hasn't really dropped the price on theirs even when i told them how much of a hard sell they are...... with the excuse "well reverb prices"

another example is there is a clothes shop that has a jmp as a prop, ive been trying to buy it for 2 years. because i dunno if it works or if it's even got the circuit in it, i've made an offer of £300. the dude keeps saying "but on reverb they're listed at £1200" and you always have to say "listen, that might be what a collector is willing to pay for one, but given the condition and the lack of history with that one, only idiots will want to buy it"

I'm wondering what would happen if Reverb got rid of "Best Offer" pricing.
Dealing with lowball offers and silly listed prices is the worst.

[mcatano]

Or kept sold listing searchable with final sale prices.

[postchrist]

Or kept sold listing searchable with final sale prices.

this would be super useful, imo.

[daCod]

Or kept sold listing searchable with final sale prices.

this would be super useful, imo.

very true. the one thing i try and do is watch anything and EVERYTHING that catches my eye. you can still view ended/sold items if they've been on
your watch list. has been a good reference for me on silly overpriced fuzz pedals, amps and guitar bits. my .02

[will]

Yep - sold listings are interesting to look through, but the actual selling prices are pretty crucial. I suppose there are privacy concerns (like if a store doesn't want it known that they usually accept 50% of their asking prices.)

I did notice that if I search eBay completed listings it won't actually list the selling price, ...but if I "sort the results by price" the results will be listed by the actual selling price - so you can look at the listings above and below the item in question to get a good idea of the actual sales price.

[Dieca]

but if I "sort the results by price" the results will be listed by the actual selling price - so you can look at the listings above and below the item in question to get a good idea of the actual sales price.

Super useful tip!

[Acidhouse]

It's really hard to say. You can still get 60s Mustangs for the price of a new Strat. Not exactly a great return on a 50 year investment. I have a Fender HM Strat that I bought for about $325 around 2005. It's probably around $800 now. Here's my guess.

JagStangs - I think these first runs will continue to go up in value.

Agiles - assuming Kurt doesn't have someone to take over for him when he finally steps away.

Squier 51s were mentioned. I had a first run. I wasn't impressed and let it go. Probably should have kept it.

I have an original SX SJM. I thought those would go up in value but it's been fifteen years and it's probably worth about what I paid for it. Cool AF offset guitar though.

The AV series from Fender - in the mid 2000s, they cost about the same as a deluxe Strat. The definitely fetch more than the Deluxes from the same era now. I imagine that's a gap that will keep widening. They weren't cheap then, they aren't cheap now and they definitely won't be cheap later.

[s_mcsleazy]

oh can i say the fender jaguarillo's? i think they're gonna be like supersonics in that the people who hold onto them, love them.

[postchrist]

another fun thought - fender stuff that will flop/decline in value? i’m kinda torn on the parallel universe stuff, on the one hand a lot of them are overpriced, cheap feeling, ugly, and generally mediocre guitars(imo of c.), but on the other hand, i imagine fender will see really low initial sales of things like the jaguar strat( ), and that could just push them way up there $$ once they’re out of production.

[Francer]

Or kept sold listing searchable with final sale prices.

You can’t see sold prices unfortunately but you can see sold items on Reverb by searching for stuff, and then manually adding

&showsold=true

To the end of the url.

[reserves]

Times have changed I think, people are looking to see what’s collectible, potentially. Limited editions etc. Keeping tags, manuals etc.

I’ve not ‘collected’ stuff over the years, I’ve just brought stuff I like. However rarely do I buy anything which I know will lose value.

[windmill]

There is talk that some of the limited runs of the Squier pawnshop/alternatereality/paranormal guitars are selling for more than when they were released.