Re: JM Prices taking off...a marketing perspective...plus a look to the future

Post by **zhivago** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:41 am

that ebay thread of that perfect '59/'60 sunburst on ebay made me think...

first, it was the gold guards...."50s gold guards are getting rare, get yours today - $7k" - an affordable 50s Fender!!

next it was bound to be the '59s with tortoise shell guards.....I think the '60/'61 guitars are up next....as they will be marketed "the last affordable, long-scale, slab board Fender"

then it'll probably be the pre-'65 guitars becoming unobtainable....especially the ones till mid '64...before the changes from clay dots etc

then it'll be the unbound '65s.....marketed as "the last few JMs made when Leo was still walking around the factory"

then it'll be early bound neck '65s...they will be marketed as "from the time Leo was still walking around as a consultant"

and I guess once the block & binding ones take off...that will be it...game over as far as prices for 60s guitars go.

the 70s ones will eventually climb up as well, I guess, as they will be marketed as "this one for sale is one of the good ones!"

so where does all this leave the rest of the guitars? From the very cool mid-80s reissues from Japan, to the AVRIs of today...will they ever achieve an iconic status?
They are bound to age....I guess one will never know...thing is, the AVRIs aren't produced in huge numbers either...can you imagine them being super rare in 30 years?
I remember the time when AVRIs didn't even exist...people where asking for them

by the way, I'm posting thins more from a purely academic point of view....I'm not thinking of getting a loan out and buying 20 AVRIs just to sit on them!!

Yannic · Post by **Yannic** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:46 am

well I sure hope that prices won't take off really quick. I'm hoping that one day I might own a real vintage jazzmaster. But for now I'm just a poor college student and have to make due with a CIJ jazzmaster.
But I'm affraid it'll goes the same way as it did with strat. Nowadays, even a seventies strat is expensieve, and the JV squires are starting to get pricy to. At least they do here in the Netherlands

Post by **mynameisjonas** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:48 am

it could happen, they are certainly good quality instruments.

Post by **zhivago** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:51 am

I think there are a couple more years that a vintage Jazzmaster will be pricey but not unobtainable, but after that, it'll probably go the way of the $trat and Tele...I'm not sure they will ever be as expensive as $trat and Teles...but they will be pretty pricey.

by the way, I'm talking about original examples, here

Post by **zhivago** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:52 am

mynameisjonas wrote: it could happen, they are certainly good quality instruments.

I agree....can we also maybe expect the AVRIs to be discontinued at some point?

the stores seem to find them hard to shift.... :/

FireAarro · Post by **FireAarro** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 4:07 am

zhivago wrote:
mynameisjonas wrote: it could happen, they are certainly good quality instruments.
I agree....can we also maybe expect the AVRIs to be discontinued at some point?

the stores seem to find them hard to shift.... :/

I don't think they'll be discontinued, there is enough demand for them to keep producing them, even if they're not all THAT popular. People will always want Jazzmasters and Jaguars.

StevenO · Post by **StevenO** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 4:16 am

I'll never end up owning a nice, vintage jazzmaster. Not at these prices. My dreams are ruined.

Post by **zhivago** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 4:17 am

it's an odd one...I think the US models are in a tight spot due to their price, mostly.

if Fender Japan stuck authentic sounding pups and better electronics in the CIJ models, I think it could be game over for the US Reissues.....maybe a price drop would help AVRIs move faster in shops?

most guitarists think of JMs and Jags as a "second or third guitar" to their $trats, Les Pauls and Teles....so maybe they are just too pricey....

it appears that most of the AVRIs are sold in the states anyway...most of Europe and Australia seem to play CIJs....I've only seen 4 AVRI JMs and 1 Jag in shops in London....but I have seen loads of CIJs

maybe the market for the AVRIs was the US market all along.....?

Post by **zhivago** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 4:18 am

StevenO wrote: I'll never end up owning a nice, vintage jazzmaster. Not at these prices. My dreams are ruined.

nah...you could still score a nice refin...ok...it won't cost $1000...but it is still attainable....keep the faith

Yannic · Post by **Yannic** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 5:15 am

Yeah,well AVRI's here in europe are kinda rare indeed.Hell I'm surprised if I even find a CIJ Jazzmaster here in store. Still, I really like CIJ but you have to upgrade thepickups and electronics.
Owh well, I think I'll have to settle for a nice refin vintage jazzmaster.

jetset · Post by **jetset** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 7:28 am

All the bigger joy when you score one at a pawnshop/yardsale/Craigslist. Just stay away from eBay and GBase and keep your eyes open, ear to the ground, yadda yadda. They're out there.

There are still occasional buy-it-now deals on eBay too. My '66 pink JM was $900 BIN about 9 months ago, and other than the finish, it only needed a pickup.

-J

Post by **i love sharin foo** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 1:39 pm

jetset wrote: My '66 pink JM was $900 BIN about 9 months ago, and other than the finish, it only needed a pickup.

-J

I remember that one! I was super super close to buying it, but I decided I didn't need it. Then I saw that you bought it, so I was happy it went to a good home

As for prices on vintage pieces...
I think slabboards will be climbing pretty quickly in the coming months. In the spring, prices will surely start climbing a lot. I think John's timeline is pretty spot on. Although not quite the same in terms of collectability and all that, look at what happened to some models of Les Pauls. It used to be that the early 50s goldtops with Trapeze bridges weren't worth much at all, look at them now. For that matter, look at Les Paul Deluxes. Historically speaking, they've been one of the less popular models, but as they have aged and the other models have become too far out of reach for most working musicians, they have increased in value quite a bit. Sure, everyone says that 70s Gibsons are garbage, but that hasn't stopped people from wanting and buying them. I honestly don't think that the price increases will skip over 70s Fenders. I mean it has already been catching up to them, despite loads of people critisizing the quality and consistency of them. Only time will tell.

Justin

serial · Post by **serial** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 7:58 pm

Lessee pics of your pink '66! I snagged my '65 (with a bridge pickup that needed to be rewound and a '70 neckplate) for under $1300 in October. Freaking awesome guitar. Thinking it was a partsomaster, I think the seller did himself a disservice-the pots, pickups, neck everything all date to mid April-early May 65-the only non-original thing on the guitar was the neckplate. I happened to have a '65 plate sitting around, so, voila! Anyone need a '70 F plate?

(please do not read this as selling stuff on this forum!)

Naturality · Post by **Naturality** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 12:02 pm

zhivago wrote: ....I guess one will never know...

Well we will do in 30 years

aen · Post by **aen** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 12:53 pm

Reissues i don't think will become incredibly expensive, untill they stop production. B Ut the i can see them going way up.

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